Fantastic guide now available! Best and worst goals recorded above average (August 5) – DobberHockey

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Dobber pleasantly surprised us all on Thursday by releasing the Fantasy Guide a day early. Maybe you’ve already looked at the spreadsheet with the projections, but now you get the full PDF guide with articles, team-by-team analysis, projections, and more! Download or buy yours today if you haven’t already.

I wrote the Goalies to Watch article and contributed to the team-by-team sections on potential injuries, contract year, hits, and goaltenders. Due to my personal schedule, I had to start team-by-team write-ups about a month ago knowing that information could change during a very busy July. At the same time, I learned a ton about each team’s situation that I hope I can apply to my own fantasy teams. For the rest of the offseason, I hope to take the opportunity to share with the Ramblings some of what I’ve learned. I’ll start with the Guardians here shortly.

The Sharks signed Mario Ferraro to a four-year contract with a $3.25 million AAV. Ferraro isn’t providing a ton of runs from the blue line, but his hit and block totals are high because he receives a lot of ice time (23:00 ATOI in 2021-22). Despite playing just 63 games in 2021-22, Ferraro led the Sharks and finished in the league’s top 30 with 291 hits plus blocks. In 2020-21, only six players finished with a higher total hits plus blocks than Ferraro (251 HITs + BKS).

Late Thursday, the Devils signed Miles Wood to a one-year, $3.2 million contract, avoiding arbitration. Wood has only played three games in 2021-22 due to a hip injury.

Even later Thursday, the Flames handled a very big deal, signing recently acquired Jonathan Huberdeau to an eight-year contract extension with a $10.5 million AAV. I’ll break this one down a bit more in the Ramblings tomorrow.

Last week, I discussed quality starts (QS) and very bad starts (RBS), removing some goaltenders who performed above or below expectations with those stats. You can read about it here. In Frozen Tools, you’ll see another interesting stat listed with QS and RBS – a stat known as Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA), which I’m going to detail today.

Frozen Tools describes Goals Saved Above Average as Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) as follows: “Calculates goalie goal difference from league average (positive, c ‘is better).”

First, here are the top goaltenders by GSAA total.

Last name Age Crew generalist QS SQ % RBS SBR % GSAA GSAA/60
IGOR SHESTERKIN 26 NYR 53 37 69.8 4 7.5 44.85 0.88
ILIA SOROKINE 26 NYI 52 36 69.2 seven 13.5 29.52 0.58
JACOB MARKSTROM 32 CGY 63 38 60.3 6 9.5 26.12 0.42
DARCY KUEMPER 32 WSH 57 31 54.4 seven 12.3 25.12 0.46
JUUSE SAROS 27 NSH 67 43 64.2 8 11.9 22.95 0.35
FREDERIC ANDERSEN 32 SELF 52 31 59.6 5 9.6 22.08 0.43
TRISTAN JARRY 27 PIT 58 37 63.8 6 10.3 21.12 0.37
ANDREI VASILEVSKY 28 TB 63 39 61.9 seven 11.1 17.72 0.28
ANTON FORSBERG 29 OTT 46 29 63 6 13 16.22 0.38
HUSSO CITY 27 TED 40 24 60 3 7.5 14.95 0.38
Thatcher Demko 26 VAN 64 35 54.7 8 12.5 14.93 0.24

The GSAA stat highlights how far and away Igor Shesterkin was the deserving winner of the Vezina Trophy. Shesterkin was tied for fourth with 37 quality starts, which may not stand out on its own. However, his four very poor starts in 53 games are quite remarkable while demonstrating his reliability. Among goalkeepers with four or fewer very bad starts, only two (Linus Ullmark, Ville Husso) have played 40 games. Barring injury (he missed eight games with a groin injury in December), Shesterkin could hit 60 games for the first time in his career in 2022-23, which would only help his win tally.

Anton Forsberg might be a surprise on this list. It was mentioned last week when I wrote about the quality starting percentage in the Ramblings.

Next, the worst GSAA total among goaltenders.

Last name Age Crew generalist QS SQ % RBS SBR % GSAA GSAA/60
Philippe GRUBAUER 30 SEA 55 18 32.7 11 20 -26.64 -0.51
JOONAS KORPISALO 28 JCB 22 5 22.7 seven 31.8 -19.04 -1.01
SAM MONTEMBEAUULT 25 Montreal 38 11 28.9 seven 18.4 -17.47 -0.54
KEVIN LANKINEN 27 NSH 32 12 37.5 6 18.8 -15.60 -0.52
KAREL VEJMELKA 26 ARI 52 22 42.3 15 28.8 -12.97 -0.28
ILLIA SAMSONOV 25 TOR 44 14 31.8 ten 22.7 -12.52 -0.32
THOMAS GREISS 36 STL 31 14 45.2 ten 32.3 -11.97 -0.48
CAL PETERSEN 27 THE 37 21 56.8 9 24.3 -11.81 -0.33
MACKENZIE BLACK WOOD 25 New Jersey 25 8 32 3 12 -11.02 -0.47
ALEX NEDELJKOVIC 26 TED 59 28 47.5 11 18.6 -10.97 -0.20
JOHN GILLES 28 ARI 20 6 30 4 20 -10.85 -0.65

Although Philipp Grubauer was going to drop in value moving from Colorado to Seattle, the goalie was supposed to be the Kraken’s strength, meaning Grubauer could still be a half-decent option. Still, it looked like Grubauer could never gain ground in the expansion team’s net. He had a pretty decent streak from mid-January to mid-March where he posted a sub-3.00 GAA and 0.900 SV% with eight wins in 20 games. Ok, I’m really looking for something here because his numbers have potentially destroyed fantasy teams more than any other goalkeeper in 2021-22. If the Kraken can improve somewhat from their inaugural season, then they can have some hope. Otherwise, he should be one of the last starting goalies drafted.

Then come the highest ranked goalkeepers for GSAA/60 (minimum 15 GP).

Last name Age Crew generalist QS SQ % RBS SBR % GSAA GSAA/60
IGOR SHESTERKIN 26 NYR 53 37 69.8 4 7.5 44.85 0.88
ILIA SOROKIN 26 NYI 52 36 69.2 seven 13.5 29.52 0.58
DARCY KUEMPER 32 WSH 57 31 54.4 seven 12.3 25.12 0.46
FREDERIC ANDERSEN 32 SELF 52 31 59.6 5 9.6 22.08 0.43
JACOB MARKSTROM 32 CGY 63 38 60.3 6 9.5 26.12 0.42
ERIC COMRIE 27 BUF 19 ten 52.6 1 5.3 7.15 0.42
ANTON FORSBERG 29 OTT 46 29 63 6 13 16.22 0.38
HUSSO CITY 27 TED 40 24 60 3 7.5 14.95 0.38
TRISTAN JARRY 27 PIT 58 37 63.8 6 10.3 21.12 0.37
JUUSE SAROS 27 NSH 67 43 64.2 8 11.9 22.95 0.35
ANTOINE STOLARZ 28 ANA 28 15 53.6 4 14.3 8.24 0.33

There’s still Shesterkin with a commanding lead in this category. This figure shows that he saved his team from almost one goal per game. In a league where a goal can often be the difference between winning and losing, Shesterkin has been Rangers’ most valuable player in 2021-22.

I also take this opportunity to talk about Eric Comrie. The Sabers’ goalie situation isn’t ideal, but Comrie could become the starter after being Connor Hellebuyck’s little-used understudy in 2021-22. A total of 19 games isn’t a big sample when it comes to goaltenders, so Comrie barely made this list with his 15-game minimum. Additionally, Comrie has played just 28 career games with no more than three games in any of his previous five seasons. Still, if cap and length are important criteria in determining who starts, Comrie has the edge over Craig Anderson and Malcolm Subban with the two-year, $1.8 million deal he signed this offseason as as a free agent.

Anthony Stolarz finished just outside the top 10 on this list. It should be mentioned that he posted better numbers than John Gibson for two consecutive seasons, but with a much lighter workload. I don’t see Stolarz challenging Gibson for the starting job, because Gibson has the big contract (five more seasons at $6.4 million per). Still, he may be able to reduce Gibson’s workload a bit more in 2022-23.

Finally, the worst GSAA/60 (minimum 15 GP).

Last name Age Crew generalist QS SQ % RBS SBR % GSAA GSAA/60
JOONAS KORPISALO 28 JCB 22 5 22.7 seven 31.8 -19.04 -1.01
DAVID RITICH 29 WPG 17 4 23.5 3 17.6 -9.01 -0.66
JOHN GILLES 28 ARI 20 6 30 4 20 -10.85 -0.65
PETR MRAZEK 30 CHI 20 seven 35 5 25 -9.64 -0.56
SAM MONTEMBEAUULT 25 Montreal 38 11 28.9 seven 18.4 -17.47 -0.54
KEVIN LANKINEN 27 NSH 32 12 37.5 6 18.8 -15.60 -0.52
Philippe GRUBAUER 30 SEA 55 18 32.7 11 20 -26.64 -0.51
FILIP GUSTAVSSON 24 MIN 18 seven 38.9 6 33.3 -8.62 -0.49
THOMAS GREISS 36 STL 31 14 45.2 ten 32.3 -11.97 -0.48
MACKENZIE BLACK WOOD 25 New Jersey 25 8 32 3 12 -11.02 -0.47

Joonas Korpisalo turned what was the league’s worst GSAA/60 into a one-year extension worth $1.3 million. Nice job, if you can get it. It’s fair to say this is Korpisalo’s last chance in the NHL, and he’ll need to improve those numbers significantly to stay in Columbus with Elvis Merzlikins starting and Daniil Tarasov knocking on the door. Korpisalo also had the second-worst GSAA overall behind Grubauer and might have had the worst number had he played more games. But from what he played, Korpisalo gave up one goal more than the average keeper. Korpisalo was also the only goalkeeper with at least 15 games played to post more very bad starts (7) than quality starts (5). He was the wrong streaming option if you added him at least once.

I should qualify all of this by saying that Korpisalo suffered from a hip injury that ultimately ended his season and required surgery. Hip injuries can be particularly problematic for a goalie, especially if they actually tried to play through.

follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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